Maritimo 1-1 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.27
6+ Goals
9%
21.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 32% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
+0.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Maritimo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 32%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -8%
1.58/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.15
+45% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.5 Crosses 17.7
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Maritimo
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Chaves
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.18 xG 1.77
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
318 Passes 313
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
13 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 3
05.02.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-1 HT 2-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
15.08.2022 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
02.02.2019 Chaves Chaves 1-0 HT 0-0 Maritimo Maritimo POR
24.08.2018 Maritimo Maritimo 2-1 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR
06.05.2018 Chaves Chaves 4-1 HT 2-1 Maritimo Maritimo POR
03.01.2018 Maritimo Maritimo 1-2 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Maritimo
1-1
AWAY Chaves
0.90 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
257 Passes 310
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Maritimo vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maritimo and Chaves shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Maritimo at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Maritimo had 47% of the ball to Chaves's 53%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.90 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Maritimo and 2.00 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Maritimo vs Chaves?

Maritimo 1-1 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Maritimo vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Maritimo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Maritimo 45%, draw 26%, Chaves 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Maritimo), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maritimo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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