Tondela 0-1 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2024

Tondela
0-1 HT 0-1
Penafiel
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✓
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Tondela vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.56
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.61
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
45%
-1.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tondela v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -20%
1.40/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.33
-8% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.4 Crosses 19.3
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Tondela vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tondela
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Penafiel
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 0.90
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
372 Passes 259
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-2 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
14.05.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
09.01.2023 Tondela Tondela 0-1 HT 0-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
03.08.2019 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela PORLC
19.10.2014 Penafiel Penafiel 2-2 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POK
06.04.2014 Tondela Tondela 0-3 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2

Tondela 0-1 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
0-1
AWAY Penafiel
0.70 xG 0.56
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
356 Passes 170
80% Pass Accuracy 69%
20 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tondela vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel nicked a narrow win over Tondela 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Tondela at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Tondela had 64% of the ball to Penafiel's 36%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 0.70 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tondela and 1.33 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Tondela vs Penafiel?

Tondela 0-1 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Tondela 44%, draw 30%, Penafiel 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Tondela) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tondela) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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