Uniao De Leiria 3-1 Vilaverdense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 13 Apr 2024

📅13/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
25%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+9.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Vilaverdense EU Bookmakers 25%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.45/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.94
+7% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +26%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 18.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Vilaverdense
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 0.75
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
383 Passes 233
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
43 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2023 Vilaverdense Vilaverdense 1-0 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
3-1
AWAY Vilaverdense
1.54 xG 0.81
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
308 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Vilaverdense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria beat Vilaverdense 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 47% of the ball to Vilaverdense's 53%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.54 to 0.81.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Vilaverdense?

Uniao De Leiria 3-1 Vilaverdense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Vilaverdense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 46%, draw 24%, Vilaverdense 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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