Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Kocaelispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 1 Feb 2025

📅01/02/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.38
Draw
26%
2.88
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.83
4-5 Goals
16%
5.88
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.74
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.25
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
5.01
X/2
19%
5.85
X/X
7%
3.5
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
9%
4.74
2/X
9%
14.6
Value flag · X/1 at 5.01 — our 23% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
38%
+3.7pp
26%
Draw
31%
-5.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.4pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+1.9pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-1.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.9pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +4%
1.24/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.18
-10% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / +15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
18.7 Crosses 16.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Kocaelispor
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
0.53 xG 0.69
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
214 Passes 326
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
23.08.2024 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
02.03.2024 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
06.10.2023 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 1-1 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
01.05.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
10.12.2021 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-1
AWAY Kocaelispor
0.80 xG 0.20
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 3
3 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 1
224 Passes 125
69% Pass Accuracy 54%
16 Box Touches 7
23 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK and Kocaelispor shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Erzurumspor FK at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 59% of the ball to Kocaelispor's 41%, shots finished 8-3, expected goals 0.80 to 0.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Kocaelispor led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 0.80 for Kocaelispor.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor?

Erzurumspor FK 1-1 Kocaelispor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Kocaelispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 42%, draw 26%, Kocaelispor 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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