Excelsior 2-2 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 1 Feb 2026

Excelsior
2 - 2 HT 0 - 2
Ajax
📅01/02/2026 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.56
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
56%
1.8
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
2.14
Over Pick
61%
1.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.56
No
40%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
18%
4.42
2-3
43%
1.89
4-5
29%
2.86
6+
10%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.03
1/2
4%
21.2
1/X
5%
14.2
X/1
8%
8.61
X/2
17%
4.73
X/X
12%
5.75
2/1
2%
35.0
2/2
35%
2.4
2/X
5%
13.15
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.

Excelsior v Ajax — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Excelsior The Market 28%
Signal
AWAY Ajax The Market 55%
Strong Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.03 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 2.21
1.65 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.31
Average Attack Strength Strong
Strong Defense Strength Bad
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
254 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 81%
20 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Excelsior vs Ajax Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ajax
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.67
0.96 xG 2.91
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 8
239 Passes 583
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 48
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.11.2025 Ajax Ajax 1-2 HT 0-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
24.04.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
19.08.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
29.01.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
16.10.2022 Ajax Ajax 7-1 HT 3-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
13.04.2019 Ajax Ajax 6-2 HT 3-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL

Excelsior 2-2 Ajax — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior
2 - 2
AWAY Ajax
0.77 xG 0.73
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 1
356 Passes 396
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Excelsior vs Ajax
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

a 2-2 draw left Excelsior and Ajax with a point apiece. Half-time: 0-2.

Our model won't enjoy this one — Ajax at 56% was the clear read, and the result ignored it. Over a season these leads pay; on a single Tuesday, anything can happen. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

By the numbers, Excelsior had 48% of the ball to Ajax's 52%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.77 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Excelsior and 3.67 for Ajax.

Excelsior vs Ajax Result & Final Score

Excelsior 2 - 2 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 01/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Excelsior vs Ajax Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Excelsior 22%, draw 22%, Ajax 56%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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