Ajax 1-2 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 22 Nov 2025

Ajax
1-2 HT 0-1
Excelsior
📅22/11/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.33
Draw
18%
4.95
Away
13%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.99
2-3 Goals
36%
2.22
4-5 Goals
28%
2.43
6+ Goals
16%
4.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.54
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
4%
18.05
X/1
20%
4.23
X/2
4%
17.1
X/X
9%
9.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
18.35
2/2
6%
12.55
2/X
5%
20.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.35 — our 11% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
70%
-1.2pp
18%
Draw
17%
+0.9pp
13%
Away Win
13%
+0.3pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.0pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 16%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
2.60/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/2.10
+8% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -14%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
425 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
45.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
21.9 Crosses 12.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Ajax vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Excelsior
4.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
3.51 xG 1.19
67% Ball Possession 33%
20 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
570 Passes 236
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
51 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.04.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
19.08.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 2-2 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
29.01.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 1-4 HT 1-2 Ajax Ajax HOL
16.10.2022 Ajax Ajax 7-1 HT 3-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
13.04.2019 Ajax Ajax 6-2 HT 3-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
11.11.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 1-7 HT 0-2 Ajax Ajax HOL

Ajax 1-2 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
1-2
AWAY Excelsior
1.44 xG 0.51
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
555 Passes 285
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 12
38 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior edged past Ajax 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Ajax carried 69% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ajax had 64% of the ball to Excelsior's 36%, shots finished 15-8, expected goals 1.44 to 0.51 — on chances, Ajax could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 4.67 goals for Ajax and 1.50 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Excelsior?

Ajax 1-2 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 22/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Ajax 69%, draw 18%, Excelsior 13%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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