Kerry 0-1 Treaty United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
47%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.24
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.76 — our 29% vs market 21.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
21%
+8.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
47%
Away Win
55%
-7.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kerry EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Treaty United EU Bookmakers 60%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.07/1.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.73
-17% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -45%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kerry
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Treaty United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.75
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 3-1 HT 1-1 Kerry İR1
07.07.2023 Kerry 2-3 HT 1-2 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
28.04.2023 Treaty United Treaty United 4-0 HT 3-0 Kerry İR1
03.03.2023 Kerry 1-1 HT 1-1 Treaty United Treaty United İR1
POST-MATCH Kerry vs Treaty United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Treaty United edged past Kerry 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Treaty United as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Treaty United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kerry and 2.75 for Treaty United.

What was the final score of Kerry vs Treaty United?

Kerry 0-1 Treaty United in the Ireland - 1st Division on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kerry vs Treaty United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Treaty United win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Kerry 30%, draw 23%, Treaty United 47%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Treaty United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Treaty United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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