Chelsea U21 2-4 Arsenal U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
33%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.96
Over 2.5
59%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.39
No
38%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
17%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.9pp
22%
Draw
22%
+0.1pp
33%
Away Win
24%
+8.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
30%
+11.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
70%
-11.4pp
62%
BTTS Yes
68%
-5.4pp
38%
BTTS No
32%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea U21 EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal U21 EU Bookmakers 28%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+55% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
392 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.0 Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea U21
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Arsenal U21
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.81 xG 1.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 6
306 Passes 475
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
11.01.2022 Arsenal U21 Arsenal U21 4-1 HT 2-1 Chelsea U21 Chelsea U21 İNTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea U21
2-4
AWAY Arsenal U21
3.24 xG 3.15
56% Ball Possession 44%
24 Total Shots 20
10 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 9
426 Passes 302
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chelsea U21 vs Arsenal U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal U21 saw off Chelsea U21 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Chelsea U21 at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (62%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea U21 had 56% of the ball to Arsenal U21's 44%, shots finished 24-20, expected goals 3.24 to 3.15.

What was the final score of Chelsea U21 vs Arsenal U21?

Chelsea U21 2-4 Arsenal U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea U21 vs Arsenal U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Chelsea U21 45%, draw 22%, Arsenal U21 33%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Chelsea U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chelsea U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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