Manchester United U21 2-4 Derby County U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League 2 (League 1), 1 Mar 2024

📅01/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
3.17
Over 2.5
59%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.32
No
44%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.4pp
20%
Draw
22%
-1.5pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
28%
+12.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
72%
-12.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
72%
-16.0pp
44%
BTTS No
28%
+16.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester United U21 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County U21 EU Bookmakers 33%
+41% / +41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +60% / +60%
1.16/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/0.54
+89% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
6.0 Crosses 7.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester United U21
2-4
AWAY Derby County U21
0.70 xG 2.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
437 Passes 370
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manchester United U21 vs Derby County U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derby County U21 beat Manchester United U21 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-4. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Manchester United U21 at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Manchester United U21 had 53% of the ball to Derby County U21's 47%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.70 to 2.08.

What was the final score of Manchester United U21 vs Derby County U21?

Manchester United U21 2-4 Derby County U21 in the England - Premier League 2 (League 1) on 01/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester United U21 vs Derby County U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester United U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Manchester United U21 45%, draw 20%, Derby County U21 34%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manchester United U21) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manchester United U21) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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