Crystal Palace 3-1 Millwall — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 1 Mar 2025

Crystal Palace
3-1 HT 2-1
Millwall
📅01/03/2025 · 🕒15:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2024/2025

Crystal Palace vs Millwall Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.32
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.27
No
55%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
25%
3.3
6+ Goals
9%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 26% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.54
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
22.1
X/1
15%
3.56
X/2
6%
18.5
X/X
8%
6.58
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
10%
17.5
2/X
10%
26.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Crystal Palace win — 55% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
71%
-16.5pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.3pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
40%
+5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
60%
-5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crystal Palace v Millwall — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Millwall EU Bookmakers 14%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +51% / +51%
2.09/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.71
-48% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +95% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 73%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.6 Crosses 12.0
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

Crystal Palace vs Millwall Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Millwall
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.95 xG 1.09
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
373 Passes 267
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
10 Box Touches 11
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
08.01.2022 Millwall Millwall 1-2 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace FAK
01.09.2020 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace HAZ
30.04.2013 Millwall Millwall 0-0 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNCL
20.10.2012 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2-2 HT 2-1 Millwall Millwall İNCL
31.12.2011 Millwall Millwall 0-1 HT 0-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNCL
26.11.2011 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 0-0 HT 0-0 Millwall Millwall İNCL

Crystal Palace 3-1 Millwall — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
3-1
AWAY Millwall
2.26 xG 0.41
76% Ball Possession 24%
17 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
528 Passes 101
87% Pass Accuracy 55%
33 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Millwall
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace saw off Millwall 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Crystal Palace as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 76% of the ball to Millwall's 24%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.26 to 0.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crystal Palace had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Crystal Palace and 0.50 for Millwall.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Millwall?

Crystal Palace 3-1 Millwall in the England - FA Cup on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Millwall?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 55%, draw 24%, Millwall 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crystal Palace) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Crystal Palace) ✗ BTTS No
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