Bournemouth 1-1 Wolverhampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 1 Mar 2025

Bournemouth
1-1 HT 1-0
Wolverhampton
📅01/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2024/2025

Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.29
Over 2.5
47%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
4.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
21%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.34
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.61 — our 31% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
18%
4.51
X/2
10%
9.24
X/X
12%
6.03
2/1
9%
20.05
2/2
10%
6.56
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-8.1pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.7pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
40%
+13.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
60%
-13.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-12.7pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bournemouth v Wolverhampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 26%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.70/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.35
+42% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +61%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 74%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.8 Crosses 8.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Wolverhampton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.38 xG 1.36
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
238 Passes 468
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
22.02.2025 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-1 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
30.11.2024 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 2-4 HT 1-3 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
24.04.2024 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-1 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
21.10.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-2 HT 1-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
18.02.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
31.08.2022 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-0 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP

Bournemouth 1-1 Wolverhampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
1-1
AWAY Wolverhampton
3.78 xG 0.91
67% Ball Possession 33%
31 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
18 Corners 1
523 Passes 218
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
57 Box Touches 16
51 Crosses 8
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth and Wolverhampton couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bournemouth at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Bournemouth had 67% of the ball to Wolverhampton's 33%, shots finished 31-9, expected goals 3.78 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bournemouth had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bournemouth and 0.83 for Wolverhampton.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton?

Bournemouth 1-1 Wolverhampton in the England - FA Cup on 01/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Wolverhampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 46%, draw 28%, Wolverhampton 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bournemouth), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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