Tonbridge Angels 1-2 Farnborough — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.5
6+ Goals
9%
13.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 26% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tonbridge Angels EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Farnborough EU Bookmakers 45%
+2% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -24%
1.58/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.52
+19% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tonbridge Angels
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Farnborough
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 8
4 Yellow Cards 0
24.10.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 4-1 HT 2-0 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
25.04.2023 Farnborough Farnborough 1-2 HT 0-0 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels İCON
13.09.2022 Tonbridge Angels Tonbridge Angels 2-1 HT 2-0 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
POST-MATCH Tonbridge Angels vs Farnborough
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough nicked a narrow win over Tonbridge Angels 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Farnborough as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tonbridge Angels had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tonbridge Angels and 2.00 for Farnborough.

What was the final score of Tonbridge Angels vs Farnborough?

Tonbridge Angels 1-2 Farnborough in the England - Conference on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tonbridge Angels vs Farnborough?

Before kick-off our model rated an Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tonbridge Angels 35%, draw 24%, Farnborough 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farnborough), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Farnborough) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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