Macarthur 1-3 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 1 Apr 2024

Macarthur
1-3 HT 0-0
Western Sydney Wanderers
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.51
Over 2.5
56%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.41
No
42%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.66
2-3 Goals
36%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.62
6+ Goals
15%
6.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.49
1/2
8%
23.6
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
15%
6.14
X/2
9%
5.89
X/X
8%
5.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
24.45
2/2
14%
3.3
2/X
12%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 11% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+5.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
31%
Away Win
38%
-6.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
36%
+8.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
64%
-8.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
67%
-8.4pp
42%
BTTS No
33%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Macarthur v Western Sydney Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macarthur EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 42%
+14% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -15%
1.62/1.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.80
+21% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -11%
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 81%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
21.6 Crosses 22.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macarthur
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.28 xG 2.15
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 6
355 Passes 438
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 31
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
04.02.2024 Macarthur Macarthur 4-3 HT 3-3 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
01.01.2024 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 3-1 HT 2-1 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.04.2023 Macarthur Macarthur 2-2 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
25.02.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
01.01.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 4-0 HT 2-0 Macarthur Macarthur AVUS
08.05.2022 Macarthur Macarthur 1-1 HT 0-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS

Macarthur 1-3 Western Sydney Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macarthur
1-3
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
2.04 xG 1.06
61% Ball Possession 39%
24 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
17 Corners 1
440 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
46 Box Touches 26
42 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney Wanderers got the better of Macarthur 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Macarthur at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Macarthur had 61% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 39%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 2.04 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Macarthur.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western Sydney Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macarthur and 2.83 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Macarthur 1-3 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 43%, draw 26%, Western Sydney Wanderers 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Macarthur) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Macarthur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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