Genk 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 1 Apr 2024

Genk
1-0 HT 1-0
Union Saint-Gilloise
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.27
6+ Goals
13%
11.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.98
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
9%
12.7
X/1
10%
6.03
X/2
15%
5.35
X/X
12%
4.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.0
2/2
14%
3.36
2/X
5%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
35%
+2.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.5pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Genk v Union Saint-Gilloise — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +6%
1.54/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.37
+4% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.3
15.3 Crosses 17.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.39 xG 1.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
321 Passes 298
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.02.2024 Genk Genk 0-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
16.09.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
21.05.2023 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
14.05.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
12.03.2023 Genk Genk 1-2 HT 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
11.09.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL

Genk 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-0
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.04 xG 1.25
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 9
240 Passes 296
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk edged past Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Genk found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genk had 45% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 55%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 1.04 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Genk and 1.33 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Genk 1-0 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Genk 37%, draw 27%, Union Saint-Gilloise 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genk) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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