Genk 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 3 Feb 2024

Genk
0-1 HT 0-0
Union Saint-Gilloise
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
43%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.16
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.3
1/X
6%
12.4
X/1
12%
6.41
X/2
16%
5.22
X/X
9%
4.96
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
19%
3.1
2/X
7%
12.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.3 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
43%
Away Win
40%
+2.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.7pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Genk v Union Saint-Gilloise — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.62/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.46
+21% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +0%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
360 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 79%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.7
15.3 Crosses 18.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.45 xG 1.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
343 Passes 285
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
21.05.2023 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
14.05.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 3-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
12.03.2023 Genk Genk 1-2 HT 1-2 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
11.09.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
23.01.2022 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL

Genk 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
0-1
AWAY Union Saint-Gilloise
0.79 xG 0.88
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
305 Passes 266
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise edged past Genk 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genk had 52% of the ball to Union Saint-Gilloise's 48%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 0.79 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Genk and 1.50 for Union Saint-Gilloise.

What was the final score of Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Genk 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise in the Belgium - Pro League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Union Saint-Gilloise?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Genk 35%, draw 22%, Union Saint-Gilloise 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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