Roskilde 0-1 Aarhus Fremad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.27
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
33%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.1
Over 2.5
43%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
4.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.1
6+ Goals
9%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 30% vs market 19.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
40%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.6pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-1.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.3pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roskilde EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarhus Fremad EU Bookmakers 38%
+12% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.57/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.07
+14% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
312 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roskilde
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 3-1 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN2
10.04.2023 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad 1-1 HT 0-1 Roskilde Roskilde DAN2
03.09.2022 Roskilde Roskilde 4-6 HT 2-3 Aarhus Fremad Aarhus Fremad DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roskilde
0-1
AWAY Aarhus Fremad
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roskilde vs Aarhus Fremad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aarhus Fremad squeezed past Roskilde 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Aarhus Fremad found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Roskilde had 53% of the ball to Aarhus Fremad's 47%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Aarhus Fremad led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Roskilde and 3.33 for Aarhus Fremad.

What was the final score of Roskilde vs Aarhus Fremad?

Roskilde 0-1 Aarhus Fremad in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roskilde vs Aarhus Fremad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roskilde win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Roskilde 37%, draw 30%, Aarhus Fremad 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Roskilde) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roskilde) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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