Lobos UPNFM 1-0 CD Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.68
Over 2.5
51%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.3pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 34%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
1.57/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.29/0.82
+14% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -77% / +66%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
3W-1D-2L
AWAY CD Real Sociedad
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 2
01.02.2024 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 2-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
01.10.2023 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 2-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
06.08.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-0 HT 0-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
25.01.2023 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
02.10.2022 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad 0-2 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
07.08.2022 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 2-0 HT 2-0 CD Real Sociedad CD Real Sociedad HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs CD Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM edged past CD Real Sociedad 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lobos UPNFM as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lobos UPNFM had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 0.83 for CD Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs CD Real Sociedad?

Lobos UPNFM 1-0 CD Real Sociedad in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs CD Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lobos UPNFM win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 41%, draw 25%, CD Real Sociedad 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lobos UPNFM), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lobos UPNFM) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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