Atlas 2-3 Queretaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
33%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.36
6+ Goals
10%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.1pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.3pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
49%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
51%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Queretaro EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +4%
1.37/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.41
-22% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.5 Crosses 18.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Queretaro
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.67 xG 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
308 Passes 288
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-2 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
23.01.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 3-3 HT 2-2 Atlas Atlas MEK
05.08.2022 Atlas Atlas 3-1 HT 0-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
06.03.2022 Queretaro Queretaro 0-3 HT 0-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
05.11.2021 Atlas Atlas 2-0 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
18.01.2021 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
2-3
AWAY Queretaro
1.69 xG 1.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
271 Passes 277
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Queretaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro nicked a narrow win over Atlas 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Atlas at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atlas had 49% of the ball to Queretaro's 51%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.69 to 1.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Atlas and 1.00 for Queretaro.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Queretaro?

Atlas 2-3 Queretaro in the Mexico - Primera on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Queretaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Atlas 41%, draw 26%, Queretaro 33%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atlas), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atlas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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