Necaxa 1-2 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Apr 2024

Necaxa
1-2 HT 0-0
Leon
📅01/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Necaxa vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.23
6+ Goals
11%
11.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-2.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Necaxa v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Necaxa EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -9%
1.25/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.98
+9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
20.4 Crosses 16.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Necaxa vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Necaxa
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Leon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.90 xG 1.55
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
212 Passes 414
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
17.01.2023 Leon Leon 2-1 HT 0-1 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
03.09.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 3-2 HT 3-0 Leon Leon MEK
26.02.2022 Necaxa Necaxa 0-1 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
07.11.2021 Leon Leon 3-0 HT 1-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK
16.03.2021 Leon Leon 3-1 HT 2-0 Necaxa Necaxa MEK

Necaxa 1-2 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Necaxa
1-2
AWAY Leon
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 4
212 Passes 381
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Necaxa vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leon edged past Necaxa 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; Leon found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Necaxa had 40% of the ball to Leon's 60%, shots finished 11-16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leon led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Necaxa and 2.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Necaxa vs Leon?

Necaxa 1-2 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Necaxa vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Necaxa win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Necaxa 37%, draw 28%, Leon 36%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Necaxa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Necaxa) ✓ BTTS Yes
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