FC Juarez 2-1 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 1 Apr 2024

📅01/04/2024 · 🕒04:36 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.61
No
55%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.77
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 28% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
43%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.2pp
55%
BTTS No
42%
+13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.24/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.50
+10% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
284 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
21.7 Crosses 16.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.88 xG 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
285 Passes 300
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 5-1 HT 2-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
12.02.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-1 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
19.09.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
19.02.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
30.08.2021 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
01.03.2021 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 3-2 HT 2-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
2-1
AWAY Santos Laguna
2.10 xG 0.36
47% Ball Possession 53%
19 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
336 Passes 404
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 7
23 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez edged past Santos Laguna 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FC Juarez as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Juarez had 47% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 53%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.10 to 0.36 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FC Juarez's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos Laguna led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Juarez and 2.17 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna?

FC Juarez 2-1 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 01/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 44%, draw 24%, Santos Laguna 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Juarez) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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