Spartak Varna 1-0 Botev Vratsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 1 Apr 2025

📅01/04/2025 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
29%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
56%
-9.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.6pp
29%
Away Win
18%
+11.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 21%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
3.20/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.40
+107% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spartak Varna
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Botev Vratsa
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.09.2024 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-1 HT 0-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
13.05.2023 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 1-1 HT 0-1 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spartak Varna
1-0
AWAY Botev Vratsa
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Spartak Varna vs Botev Vratsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna edged past Botev Vratsa 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Spartak Varna as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Spartak Varna had 63% of the ball to Botev Vratsa's 37%, shots finished 12-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Spartak Varna and 1.00 for Botev Vratsa.

What was the final score of Spartak Varna vs Botev Vratsa?

Spartak Varna 1-0 Botev Vratsa in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spartak Varna vs Botev Vratsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spartak Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Spartak Varna 47%, draw 24%, Botev Vratsa 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Varna), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Varna) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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