Al Ittihad-Jeddah 3-2 Al Shabab Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey, 1 Apr 2025

📅01/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.49
No
50%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.62
2-3 Goals
45%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.71
6+ Goals
12%
7.18
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+0.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.1pp
50%
BTTS No
37%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ittihad-Jeddah EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 33%
-54% / -54% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +28% / +28%
0.54/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.74
-44% / -59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.9
10.0 Crosses 27.0
5.0 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ittihad-Jeddah
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.66 xG 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
403 Passes 387
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.01.2025 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
26.04.2024 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah 1-3 HT 0-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
03.11.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah SUUD
27.04.2023 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
09.01.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah SUUD
22.12.2022 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SAKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ittihad-Jeddah
3-2
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
3.29 xG 0.94
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 2
455 Passes 420
86% Pass Accuracy 87%
27 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ittihad-Jeddah nicked a narrow win over Al Shabab Riyadh 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ittihad-Jeddah as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Ittihad-Jeddah had 52% of the ball to Al Shabab Riyadh's 48%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 3.29 to 0.94 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Al Ittihad-Jeddah's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Al Ittihad-Jeddah and 1.33 for Al Shabab Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Al Ittihad-Jeddah 3-2 Al Shabab Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Copa del Rey on 01/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ittihad-Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Al Ittihad-Jeddah 45%, draw 23%, Al Shabab Riyadh 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ittihad-Jeddah), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ittihad-Jeddah) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →