Al Ittihad-Jeddah 1-3 Al Shabab Riyadh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 26 Apr 2024

Al Ittihad-Jeddah
1-3 HT 0-0
Al Shabab Riyadh
📅26/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League – 2023/2024

Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.32
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.32 — our 25% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.6pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Ittihad-Jeddah v Al Shabab Riyadh — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ittihad-Jeddah EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh EU Bookmakers 33%
+9% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -5%
1.71/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.28
+30% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
15.5 Crosses 17.4
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ittihad-Jeddah
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.59 xG 1.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
370 Passes 414
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
27 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.11.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-0 HT 1-0 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah SUUD
27.04.2023 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD
09.01.2023 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah SUUD
22.12.2022 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SAKK
13.03.2022 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah SUUD
22.10.2021 Al Ittihad-Jeddah Al Ittihad-Jeddah 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Shabab Riyadh Al Shabab Riyadh SUUD

Al Ittihad-Jeddah 1-3 Al Shabab Riyadh — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ittihad-Jeddah
1-3
AWAY Al Shabab Riyadh
1.21 xG 2.74
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 1
296 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Shabab Riyadh got the better of Al Ittihad-Jeddah 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Al Ittihad-Jeddah at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Al Ittihad-Jeddah had 49% of the ball to Al Shabab Riyadh's 51%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.21 to 2.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Ittihad-Jeddah and 1.00 for Al Shabab Riyadh.

What was the final score of Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Al Ittihad-Jeddah 1-3 Al Shabab Riyadh in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 26/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ittihad-Jeddah vs Al Shabab Riyadh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ittihad-Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Al Ittihad-Jeddah 42%, draw 25%, Al Shabab Riyadh 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Ittihad-Jeddah), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Ittihad-Jeddah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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