Jeju United 1-3 Gwangju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 1 May 2024

📅01/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 33% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.1
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
15%
6.59
X/2
15%
4.53
X/X
17%
4.24
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
13%
3.02
2/X
6%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.2pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
35%
Away Win
43%
-8.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.3pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jeju United EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Gwangju EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.07/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.50
-17% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +114%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 401 · 82%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.1 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jeju United
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Gwangju
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.77 xG 0.84
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
387 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
20 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Jeju United Jeju United 1-2 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
11.07.2023 Jeju United Jeju United 0-0 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOR
26.04.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-1 HT 0-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
18.09.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 1-1 HT 1-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
19.05.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 0-0 HT 0-0 Jeju United Jeju United GKOK
20.03.2021 Jeju United Jeju United 1-1 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jeju United
1-3
AWAY Gwangju
53% Ball Possession 47%
1 Total Shots 1
0 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 0
322 Passes 378
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Jeju United vs Gwangju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju saw off Jeju United 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Gwangju made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Jeju United had 53% of the ball to Gwangju's 47%, shots finished 1-1.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Jeju United and 0.67 for Gwangju.

What was the final score of Jeju United vs Gwangju?

Jeju United 1-3 Gwangju in the South Kore - K League Classic on 01/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jeju United vs Gwangju?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jeju United win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Jeju United 35%, draw 30%, Gwangju 35%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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