Flamengo 2-1 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 1 Jul 2024

Flamengo
2-1 HT 1-1
Cruzeiro
📅01/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.78
Over 2.5
38%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
1.96
No
63%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
3.01
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.88
6+ Goals
10%
17.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 37% vs market 27.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.14
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.25
X/1
19%
3.7
X/2
6%
9.9
X/X
13%
4.93
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
12%
8.25
2/X
8%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-7.7pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+9.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-9.6pp
37%
BTTS Yes
47%
-9.6pp
63%
BTTS No
53%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Flamengo v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.72/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.21
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
379 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
20.9 Crosses 14.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.96 xG 1.28
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
432 Passes 314
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
20.10.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-2 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
28.05.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 1-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
21.09.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-2 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
28.04.2019 Flamengo Flamengo 3-1 HT 1-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
25.11.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
30.08.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo LKU

Flamengo 2-1 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
2-1
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.57 xG 0.63
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
316 Passes 377
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 10
8 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo edged past Cruzeiro 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Flamengo had 46% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 54%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.57 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Flamengo and 0.50 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?

Flamengo 2-1 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 01/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 50%, draw 27%, Cruzeiro 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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