Vitoria 0-1 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 1 Jul 2024

Vitoria
0-1 HT 0-0
Atletico Paranaense
📅01/07/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
31%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.56
Over 2.5
43%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.39
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.02
6+ Goals
8%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.32
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.95
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
11%
6.23
X/X
13%
3.74
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
12%
5.0
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 32%
-12% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -13%
1.59/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.49
-21% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
24.5 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.22 xG 2.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
362 Passes 311
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.11.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
29.07.2018 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
20.10.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-3 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
25.06.2017 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 4-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
06.11.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 3-2 HT 1-2 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
17.07.2016 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1

Vitoria 0-1 Atletico Paranaense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria
0-1
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.07 xG 0.95
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
437 Passes 289
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense squeezed past Vitoria 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Vitoria had 59% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 41%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.07 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Paranaense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vitoria and 2.67 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?

Vitoria 0-1 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 01/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vitoria 41%, draw 28%, Atletico Paranaense 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Vitoria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
1 Jul 2024
00:30 Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Analysis →
00:30 Criciuma vs Internacional Analysis →