Al Masry 2-1 El Gounah — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 1 Jul 2024

📅01/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.76
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.23
6+ Goals
8%
20.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 33% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.5pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.4pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Masry EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY El Gounah EU Bookmakers 24%
-14% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.63/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.22
-11% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
352 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
21.0 Crosses 15.1
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Masry
4W-2D-0L
AWAY El Gounah
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.52 xG 0.62
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
286 Passes 232
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.02.2024 El Gounah El Gounah 2-2 HT 1-0 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
18.06.2022 Al Masry Al Masry 1-0 HT 0-0 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
22.11.2021 El Gounah El Gounah 0-3 HT 0-0 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
11.04.2021 Al Masry Al Masry 1-0 HT 0-0 El Gounah El Gounah MSR
17.12.2020 El Gounah El Gounah 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
05.10.2020 El Gounah El Gounah 0-2 HT 0-0 Al Masry Al Masry MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Masry
2-1
AWAY El Gounah
0.78 xG 1.98
59% Ball Possession 41%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
399 Passes 235
79% Pass Accuracy 71%
10 Box Touches 31
9 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Masry vs El Gounah
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Masry edged past El Gounah 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Masry as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Masry had 59% of the ball to El Gounah's 41%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.78 to 1.98 — the balance of chances actually favoured El Gounah.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Masry had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Al Masry and 0.50 for El Gounah.

What was the final score of Al Masry vs El Gounah?

Al Masry 2-1 El Gounah in the Egypt - Premier League on 01/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Masry vs El Gounah?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Masry win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Al Masry 46%, draw 27%, El Gounah 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Masry) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Masry) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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