Melgar vs Universitario Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Universitario — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Universitario Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-1
Universitario
PER
1-0
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
1-1
HT 1-1
Melgar
PER
2-0
HT 1-0
Universitario
PER
1-2
HT 0-1
Universitario
PER
Melgar 1-0 Universitario — Actual Match Statistics
Melgar squeezed past Universitario 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (38% / 35% / 27%) promised a tight game; Melgar found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Melgar had 49% of the ball to Universitario's 51%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.35 to 0.39.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universitario led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Melgar and 1.17 for Universitario.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Universitario?
Melgar 1-0 Universitario in the Peru - Premier League on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Universitario?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Melgar 38%, draw 35%, Universitario 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.