Universitario 2-0 Melgar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.78
Over 2.5
40%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-6.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Universitario EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Melgar EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +6%
1.59/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.46
+1% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +36%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
283 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 78%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
20.8 Crosses 16.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Universitario
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Melgar
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.77 xG 1.21
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
218 Passes 360
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.08.2023 Melgar Melgar 0-1 HT 0-1 Universitario Universitario PER
05.03.2023 Universitario Universitario 1-0 HT 0-0 Melgar Melgar PER
16.10.2022 Universitario Universitario 1-1 HT 1-1 Melgar Melgar PER
29.05.2022 Melgar Melgar 2-0 HT 1-0 Universitario Universitario PER
31.10.2021 Melgar Melgar 1-2 HT 0-1 Universitario Universitario PER
01.02.2020 Melgar Melgar 1-2 HT 1-1 Universitario Universitario PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Universitario
2-0
AWAY Melgar
1.85 xG 0.51
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
302 Passes 255
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 11
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Universitario vs Melgar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Universitario beat Melgar 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Universitario as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Universitario had 53% of the ball to Melgar's 47%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.85 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Universitario had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Universitario and 0.83 for Melgar.

What was the final score of Universitario vs Melgar?

Universitario 2-0 Melgar in the Peru - Premier League on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Universitario vs Melgar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Universitario win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Universitario 53%, draw 25%, Melgar 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Universitario), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Universitario) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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