New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction — Model Probabilities
New Mexico United v Las Vegas Lights — Team-Based Signals
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
New Mexico United 1-2 Las Vegas Lights — Actual Match Statistics
Las Vegas Lights came out on the right side of a one-goal game with New Mexico United 2-1 on the road. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had New Mexico United at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%) landed.
On the day, possession split 55% to 45% in New Mexico United's favour, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.83 to 1.76.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.83 a game for New Mexico United against 1.00 for Las Vegas Lights.
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Result & Final Score
New Mexico United 1 - 2 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 60%, draw 21%, Las Vegas Lights 19%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New Mexico United) went the other way.