New Mexico United 1-2 Las Vegas Lights — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 1 Aug 2024

📅01/08/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.61
No
51%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
4.6
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
24%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.8pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.1pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.40/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.74
-7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 78%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
13.6 Crosses 14.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New Mexico United
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 1.05
52% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
348 Passes 311
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 1-2 HT 1-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
31.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-3 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
05.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-2 HT 1-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
01.10.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
14.03.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
20.10.2019 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New Mexico United
1-2
AWAY Las Vegas Lights
1.83 xG 1.76
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
391 Passes 325
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Vegas Lights nicked a narrow win over New Mexico United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was New Mexico United at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, New Mexico United had 55% of the ball to Las Vegas Lights's 45%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.83 to 1.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New Mexico United and 1.00 for Las Vegas Lights.

What was the final score of New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?

New Mexico United 1-2 Las Vegas Lights in the USL Championship on 01/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New Mexico United vs Las Vegas Lights?

Before kick-off our model rated a New Mexico United win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split New Mexico United 50%, draw 25%, Las Vegas Lights 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (New Mexico United) ✗ BTTS No
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