Las Vegas Lights 1-2 New Mexico United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 5 May 2024

📅05/05/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.28
6+ Goals
7%
11.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 31% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-5.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+6.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Vegas Lights EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY New Mexico United EU Bookmakers 34%
-19% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +14%
1.31/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.44
-4% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 77%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.4 Crosses 12.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Vegas Lights
1W-3D-2L
AWAY New Mexico United
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 1.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
301 Passes 391
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2023 New Mexico United New Mexico United 3-3 HT 1-1 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
05.07.2023 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 2-2 HT 1-2 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
01.10.2022 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 0-0 HT 0-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
14.03.2022 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
20.10.2019 New Mexico United New Mexico United 2-0 HT 1-0 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights USLP
16.06.2019 Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights 5-1 HT 2-0 New Mexico United New Mexico United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Vegas Lights
1-2
AWAY New Mexico United
1.35 xG 1.97
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 9
10 Corners 2
339 Passes 327
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 37
23 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New Mexico United squeezed past Las Vegas Lights 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; New Mexico United found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 51% of the ball to New Mexico United's 49%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.35 to 1.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 1.67 for New Mexico United.

What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?

Las Vegas Lights 1-2 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 37%, draw 25%, New Mexico United 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/25/37) ✗ Under 2.5
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