Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Las Vegas Lights v New Mexico United — Team-Based Signals
Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-3
HT 1-1
Las Vegas Lights
USLP
2-2
HT 1-2
New Mexico United
USLP
0-0
HT 0-0
New Mexico United
USLP
2-0
HT 1-0
Las Vegas Lights
USLP
2-0
HT 1-0
Las Vegas Lights
USLP
5-1
HT 2-0
New Mexico United
USLP
Las Vegas Lights 1-2 New Mexico United — Actual Match Statistics
New Mexico United squeezed past Las Vegas Lights 2-1 away from home.
Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 37%) promised a tight game; New Mexico United found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Las Vegas Lights had 51% of the ball to New Mexico United's 49%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.35 to 1.97.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New Mexico United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 1.67 for New Mexico United.
What was the final score of Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
Las Vegas Lights 1-2 New Mexico United in the USL Championship on 05/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Las Vegas Lights win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Las Vegas Lights 37%, draw 25%, New Mexico United 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.