Guangzhou Evergrande 2-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.94
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.78
Over 2.5
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.86
6+ Goals
11%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 32% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
20%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-3.0pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Chongqing Tongliang Long EU Bookmakers 46%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.60/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.18
+45% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
265 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 73%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
21.0 Crosses 24.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Chongqing Tongliang Long
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.33 xG 1.09
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
315 Passes 204
77% Pass Accuracy 66%
7 Box Touches 23
8 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Chongqing Tongliang Long Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-1 HT 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
2-0
AWAY Chongqing Tongliang Long
0.39 xG 0.56
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 2
315 Passes 162
79% Pass Accuracy 64%
16 Box Touches 17
8 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guangzhou Evergrande vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangzhou Evergrande got the better of Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Chongqing Tongliang Long at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Guangzhou Evergrande had 60% of the ball to Chongqing Tongliang Long's 40%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.39 to 0.56.

What was the final score of Guangzhou Evergrande vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?

Guangzhou Evergrande 2-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangzhou Evergrande vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chongqing Tongliang Long win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Guangzhou Evergrande 28%, draw 31%, Chongqing Tongliang Long 42%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Chongqing Tongliang Long) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Chongqing Tongliang Long) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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