Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 14 Apr 2024

Chongqing Tongliang Long
2-1 HT 1-0
Guangzhou Evergrande
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division – 2024

Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Guangzhou Evergrande Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.6
Over 2.5
35%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.06
No
59%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.7
6+ Goals
6%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.52 — our 36% vs market 33.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.6pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.6pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-3.0pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chongqing Tongliang Long v Guangzhou Evergrande — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +81% / -33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
284 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
– Crosses 13.9
– Yellow Cards 2.0

Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chongqing Tongliang Long
2-1
AWAY Guangzhou Evergrande
1.09 xG 0.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
204 Passes 315
66% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 7
23 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Guangzhou Evergrande
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chongqing Tongliang Long nicked a narrow win over Guangzhou Evergrande 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chongqing Tongliang Long as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Chongqing Tongliang Long had 44% of the ball to Guangzhou Evergrande's 56%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.09 to 0.33.

What was the final score of Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Guangzhou Evergrande?

Chongqing Tongliang Long 2-1 Guangzhou Evergrande in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Guangzhou Evergrande?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chongqing Tongliang Long win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Chongqing Tongliang Long 48%, draw 27%, Guangzhou Evergrande 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chongqing Tongliang Long) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chongqing Tongliang Long) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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