Burgos 0-2 CD Castellon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.26
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.61
6+ Goals
10%
14.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 29% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.47
1/2
5%
31.0
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
9%
5.3
X/2
16%
5.93
X/X
16%
4.44
2/1
11%
28.0
2/2
14%
4.07
2/X
5%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-4.3pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burgos EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Castellon EU Bookmakers 37%
+13% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.26/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/0.71
-6% / +45% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
401 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 75%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
19.3 Crosses 19.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burgos
0-2
AWAY CD Castellon
1.68 xG 1.53
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
199 Passes 305
63% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Burgos vs CD Castellon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CD Castellon got the better of Burgos 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day CD Castellon made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Burgos had 43% of the ball to CD Castellon's 57%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.68 to 1.53.

What was the final score of Burgos vs CD Castellon?

Burgos 0-2 CD Castellon in the Spain - 2nd Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burgos vs CD Castellon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Burgos win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Burgos 37%, draw 28%, CD Castellon 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Burgos), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Burgos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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