Eldense 1-2 Cartagena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.9
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.06
No
61%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.37
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.09
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.37 — our 38% vs market 35.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.76
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
16%
4.12
X/2
11%
7.56
X/X
17%
3.8
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
11%
6.46
2/X
8%
15.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
49%
-7.6pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.4pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+2.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-2.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.5pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eldense EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cartagena EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.20/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.46
-3% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 235 · 69%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
20.8 Crosses 20.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eldense
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Cartagena
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.65 xG 0.61
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
262 Passes 254
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
16 Box Touches 14
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
15.03.2024 Eldense Eldense 0-0 HT 0-0 Cartagena Cartagena İS2
13.08.2023 Cartagena Cartagena 0-1 HT 0-1 Eldense Eldense İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eldense
1-2
AWAY Cartagena
2.37 xG 1.02
61% Ball Possession 39%
23 Total Shots 6
11 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
327 Passes 180
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Eldense vs Cartagena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cartagena edged past Eldense 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Eldense at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Eldense had 61% of the ball to Cartagena's 39%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 2.37 to 1.02 — on chances, Eldense could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Eldense had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Eldense and 0.00 for Cartagena.

What was the final score of Eldense vs Cartagena?

Eldense 1-2 Cartagena in the Spain - 2nd Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eldense vs Cartagena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eldense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Eldense 41%, draw 31%, Cartagena 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Eldense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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