Novara 0-3 Atalanta II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
41%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.51
Over 2.5
52%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.09
No
52%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
5.53
6+ Goals
10%
34.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 5.53 — our 27% vs market 13.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.4pp
24%
Draw
30%
-5.2pp
41%
Away Win
35%
+6.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
62%
-15.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
38%
+15.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.3pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta II EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.32/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.76
+14% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +46%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
304 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Atalanta II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Atalanta II Atalanta II 0-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
24.10.2023 Novara Novara 2-3 HT 1-0 Atalanta II Atalanta II İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
0-3
AWAY Atalanta II
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Novara vs Atalanta II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atalanta II ran out comfortable winners over Novara 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atalanta II as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Novara had 50% of the ball to Atalanta II's 50%, shots finished 15-7.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atalanta II led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Novara and 1.50 for Atalanta II.

What was the final score of Novara vs Atalanta II?

Novara 0-3 Atalanta II in the Italy - Serie C on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Atalanta II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atalanta II win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Novara 35%, draw 24%, Atalanta II 41%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta II), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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