Bayern Münih 2-0 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Sep 2024

Bayern Münih
2-0 HT 1-0
Freiburg
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Bayern Münih vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.25
Draw
21%
5.71
Away
17%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
3.17
Over 2.5
57%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
8.34
2-3 Goals
37%
2.35
4-5 Goals
29%
2.38
6+ Goals
13%
4.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.35
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
25.5
X/1
17%
3.7
X/2
7%
24.85
X/X
8%
11.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
19.2
2/2
5%
16.45
2/X
5%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.2 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
76%
-14.2pp
21%
Draw
15%
+6.2pp
18%
Away Win
10%
+7.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
28%
+14.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
72%
-14.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.1pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern Münih v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
2.73/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.05
+36% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
503 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
40.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.2 Crosses 11.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4

Bayern Münih vs Freiburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Freiburg
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.30 xG 0.79
65% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
573 Passes 251
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
45 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.03.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
08.10.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 3-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.04.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
04.04.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AFK
16.10.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-0 HT 2-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
02.04.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-4 HT 0-0 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1

Bayern Münih 2-0 Freiburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
2-0
AWAY Freiburg
1.59 xG 1.09
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
629 Passes 261
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih beat Freiburg 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 67% of the ball to Freiburg's 33%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.59 to 1.09.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Bayern Münih and 0.83 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Freiburg?

Bayern Münih 2-0 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 62%, draw 21%, Freiburg 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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