Heidenheim 4-0 Augsburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.97
Over 2.5
54%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.68
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.29
6+ Goals
11%
11.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.28
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
8%
5.23
X/2
12%
6.11
X/X
11%
4.81
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
25.5
2/2
14%
4.08
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 7% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
47%
-0.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
53%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.1pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Augsburg EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.32/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.27
+31% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
323 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
22.4 Crosses 19.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Augsburg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.97 xG 1.54
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
336 Passes 323
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 Augsburg Augsburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
22.10.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-5 HT 2-3 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
16.12.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
4-0
AWAY Augsburg
3.08 xG 0.74
36% Ball Possession 64%
15 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
224 Passes 441
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Augsburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim ran out comfortable winners over Augsburg 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heidenheim as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Heidenheim had 36% of the ball to Augsburg's 64%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 3.08 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Augsburg led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Heidenheim and 2.67 for Augsburg.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Augsburg?

Heidenheim 4-0 Augsburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Augsburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heidenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 41%, draw 27%, Augsburg 32%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heidenheim), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Heidenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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