Augsburg 1-0 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 Mar 2024

Augsburg
1-0 HT 1-0
Heidenheim
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Augsburg vs Heidenheim Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.56
No
48%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.0
2-3 Goals
42%
1.95
4-5 Goals
25%
2.76
6+ Goals
11%
7.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
18%
4.17
X/2
11%
9.73
X/X
12%
6.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.1
2/2
9%
6.65
2/X
5%
14.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.1 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-7.4pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Augsburg v Heidenheim — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Augsburg EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 25%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.25/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.66
-17% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +35%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
391 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 71%
24.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
22.7 Crosses 17.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.6

Augsburg vs Heidenheim Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Augsburg
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Heidenheim
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.55 xG 1.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
296 Passes 470
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-5 HT 2-3 Augsburg Augsburg AL1
16.12.2022 Augsburg Augsburg 2-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim HAZ

Augsburg 1-0 Heidenheim — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Augsburg
1-0
AWAY Heidenheim
0.54 xG 0.38
58% Ball Possession 42%
7 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
350 Passes 202
73% Pass Accuracy 61%
23 Box Touches 7
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Augsburg vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Augsburg edged past Heidenheim 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Augsburg as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Augsburg had 58% of the ball to Heidenheim's 42%, shots finished 7-6, expected goals 0.54 to 0.38.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Augsburg had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Augsburg and 1.00 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Augsburg vs Heidenheim?

Augsburg 1-0 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Augsburg vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Augsburg win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Augsburg 49%, draw 25%, Heidenheim 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Augsburg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Augsburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
9 Mar 2024
17:30 Mönchengladbach vs Köln Analysis →
17:30 Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05 Analysis →
17:30 RB Leipzig vs Darmstadt 98 Analysis →
20:30 Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Analysis →