Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 Mar 2024

Werder Bremen
1-2 HT 0-2
Borussia Dortmund
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
46%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.63
Over 2.5
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.26
2-3 Goals
38%
2.1
4-5 Goals
28%
2.54
6+ Goals
13%
5.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.21
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
11%
8.51
X/2
12%
4.65
X/X
9%
6.57
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
23%
2.3
2/X
9%
13.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.5 — our 10% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
26%
+4.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.7pp
46%
Away Win
51%
-5.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.4pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.9pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 56%
-8% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.23/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/1.41
-7% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 80%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
17.6 Crosses 15.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Werder Bremen
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.63 xG 2.20
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
325 Passes 512
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
20.10.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 0-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
11.02.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
20.08.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 1-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
18.04.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-1 HT 3-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
15.12.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
22.02.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-2 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Werder Bremen
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.82 xG 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 4
421 Passes 532
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 24
30 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund edged past Werder Bremen 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Werder Bremen had 45% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 55%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.82 to 1.17 — the balance of chances actually favoured Werder Bremen.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Werder Bremen and 2.17 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Werder Bremen 30%, draw 24%, Borussia Dortmund 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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