Bayern Münih 8-1 Mainz 05 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 9 Mar 2024

Bayern Münih
8-1 HT 3-1
Mainz 05
📅09/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.29
Draw
17%
5.15
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.89
Over 2.5
62%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.65
2-3 Goals
39%
2.14
4-5 Goals
29%
2.5
6+ Goals
14%
5.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.42
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
23.6
X/1
16%
3.62
X/2
4%
21.85
X/X
7%
9.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.5
2/2
8%
15.1
2/X
5%
22.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.5 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
73%
-6.1pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.9pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
31%
+6.9pp
62%
Over 2.5
69%
-6.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bayern Münih v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
2.73/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/2.00
+38% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +4%
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
551 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
41.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
22.2 Crosses 13.5
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Mainz 05
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.20 xG 1.84
68% Ball Possession 32%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
566 Passes 209
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
34 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 1-3 HT 1-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
22.04.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 0-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
01.02.2023 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-4 HT 0-3 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AFK
29.10.2022 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 6-2 HT 3-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
30.04.2022 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 3-1 HT 2-1 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
11.12.2021 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 2-1 HT 0-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Bayern Münih 8-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
8-1
AWAY Mainz 05
6.41 xG 0.84
59% Ball Possession 41%
24 Total Shots 14
12 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 7
506 Passes 337
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
38 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih swept aside Mainz 05 8-1. Half-time: 3-1. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 8-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%) came in.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 59% of the ball to Mainz 05's 41%, shots finished 24-14, expected goals 6.41 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Bayern Münih and 1.67 for Mainz 05.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05?

Bayern Münih 8-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 09/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Mainz 05?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 67%, draw 17%, Mainz 05 16%. The final score 8-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5
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