Rapid Wien 3-2 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.43
Over 2.5
52%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.46
No
47%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.99
4-5 Goals
26%
2.68
6+ Goals
10%
6.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.77
1/2
6%
20.95
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
11%
7.61
X/2
20%
4.85
X/X
9%
5.93
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
17%
2.56
2/X
11%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
29%
+1.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.4pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
64%
-11.3pp
47%
BTTS No
36%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 51%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
1.45/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.23
-9% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +25%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 71%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
17.7 Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rapid Wien
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Salzburg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.48 xG 1.40
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
254 Passes 316
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 2-0 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
07.04.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
09.12.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 0-1 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
03.09.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
07.05.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
26.04.2023 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-1 HT 1-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rapid Wien
3-2
AWAY Salzburg
3.67 xG 1.13
33% Ball Possession 67%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
222 Passes 525
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 33
10 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rapid Wien vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rapid Wien squeezed past Salzburg 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Salzburg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Rapid Wien had 33% of the ball to Salzburg's 67%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 3.67 to 1.13 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rapid Wien's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rapid Wien and 1.17 for Salzburg.

What was the final score of Rapid Wien vs Salzburg?

Rapid Wien 3-2 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rapid Wien vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Rapid Wien 31%, draw 27%, Salzburg 43%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Salzburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Salzburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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