Zira 1-3 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.65
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
46%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
25%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
18%
+10.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
46%
Away Win
58%
-11.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zira EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 62%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
0.68/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.42/0.67
-35% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
219 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zira
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Karabağ
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
25% Ball Possession 75%
4 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 4
02.06.2024 Zira Zira 1-2 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
10.03.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 1-0 Zira Zira AZERS
24.12.2023 Zira Zira 0-1 HT 0-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
05.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 0-1 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
21.04.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-2 HT 0-0 Zira Zira AZERS
19.02.2023 Zira Zira 0-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Zira vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ beat Zira 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Zira and 1.50 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Zira vs Karabağ?

Zira 1-3 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zira vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Zira 28%, draw 26%, Karabağ 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5
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