Hebar 1918 3-1 PFC Beroe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
44%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
34%
2.27
No
66%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
21%
2/1
4%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
22%
+4.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
44%
Away Win
51%
-6.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.4pp
34%
BTTS Yes
40%
-6.2pp
66%
BTTS No
60%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hebar 1918 EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 55%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+19% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
166 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 449 · 86%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hebar 1918
3W-0D-2L
AWAY PFC Beroe
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.05.2024 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 0-1 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
24.11.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-1 HT 1-0 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 BUL1
29.07.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 1-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
05.06.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 3-1 HT 1-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
08.05.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 0-2 HT 0-1 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hebar 1918
3-1
AWAY PFC Beroe
45% Ball Possession 55%
5 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Hebar 1918 vs PFC Beroe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hebar 1918 beat PFC Beroe 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was PFC Beroe at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (66%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hebar 1918 had 45% of the ball to PFC Beroe's 55%, shots finished 5-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Hebar 1918 had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Hebar 1918 and 0.80 for PFC Beroe.

What was the final score of Hebar 1918 vs PFC Beroe?

Hebar 1918 3-1 PFC Beroe in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hebar 1918 vs PFC Beroe?

Before kick-off our model rated an PFC Beroe win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hebar 1918 26%, draw 30%, PFC Beroe 44%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PFC Beroe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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