Hebar 1918 0-1 PFC Beroe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒20:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
26%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.7pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.5pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-1.8pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-1.8pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hebar 1918 EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 32%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -23%
1.27/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/1.00
+16% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
310 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hebar 1918
3W-0D-1L
AWAY PFC Beroe
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
24.11.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 2-1 HT 1-0 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 BUL1
29.07.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 1-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
05.06.2023 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 3-1 HT 1-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
08.05.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 0-2 HT 0-1 Hebar 1918 Hebar 1918 BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hebar 1918
0-1
AWAY PFC Beroe
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hebar 1918 vs PFC Beroe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PFC Beroe nicked a narrow win over Hebar 1918 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hebar 1918 at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Hebar 1918 had 61% of the ball to PFC Beroe's 39%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Hebar 1918 had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Hebar 1918 and 0.75 for PFC Beroe.

What was the final score of Hebar 1918 vs PFC Beroe?

Hebar 1918 0-1 PFC Beroe in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hebar 1918 vs PFC Beroe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hebar 1918 win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hebar 1918 43%, draw 30%, PFC Beroe 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hebar 1918) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hebar 1918) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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