Aucas 0-2 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 1 Sep 2024

Aucas
0-2 HT 0-0
Independiente Del Valle
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.04
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
49%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
13%
X/2
21%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
21%
+7.4pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
49%
Away Win
53%
-4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.3pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Aucas v Independiente Del Valle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 57%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.98/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/0.71
-25% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +37%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
255 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 79%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
18.6 Crosses 19.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.96 xG 1.58
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
172 Passes 401
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
25.03.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.11.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
03.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
11.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKVSK
24.07.2022 Aucas Aucas 5-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
07.03.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 1-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1

Aucas 0-2 Independiente Del Valle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
0-2
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.60 xG 0.79
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
230 Passes 342
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
14 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle saw off Aucas 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Aucas had 43% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 57%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.60 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aucas and 1.17 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle?

Aucas 0-2 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Aucas 29%, draw 22%, Independiente Del Valle 49%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
1 Sep 2024
02:00 LDU Quito vs Barcelona SC Analysis →
21:00 Macara vs Tecnico Universitario Analysis →