Matagalpa 1-1 Export Sebaco — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nikaragua - Premier League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
33%
3.72
Away
23%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
52%
-8.2pp
33%
Draw
23%
+9.5pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-1.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.2pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.1pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Matagalpa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Export Sebaco EU Bookmakers 28%
-31% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +9%
1.61/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.21
-15% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Matagalpa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Export Sebaco
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Matagalpa Matagalpa 1-1 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
10.11.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 2-0 HT 1-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
04.09.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-2 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
02.04.2023 Matagalpa Matagalpa 0-0 HT 0-0 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco NİK
10.02.2023 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 0-3 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
24.10.2022 Export Sebaco Export Sebaco 2-1 HT 0-1 Matagalpa Matagalpa NİK
POST-MATCH Matagalpa vs Export Sebaco
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Matagalpa and Export Sebaco shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Matagalpa at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (60%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Matagalpa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Matagalpa and 0.83 for Export Sebaco.

What was the final score of Matagalpa vs Export Sebaco?

Matagalpa 1-1 Export Sebaco in the Nikaragua - Premier League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Matagalpa vs Export Sebaco?

Before kick-off our model rated a Matagalpa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Matagalpa 44%, draw 33%, Export Sebaco 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Matagalpa), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Matagalpa) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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