Backa Topola 1-2 Mladost Lucani — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
17%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
63%
-1.7pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.7pp
17%
Away Win
16%
+1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.7pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Mladost Lucani EU Bookmakers 19%
-11% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +18%
1.99/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.92
-4% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -13%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 230 · 70%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
26.1 Crosses 14.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mladost Lucani
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.04 xG 1.02
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
417 Passes 257
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2024 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-0 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
12.03.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-1 HT 1-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
30.09.2023 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 1-1 HT 0-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
18.03.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-1 HT 2-0 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani SIRP
16.09.2022 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-5 HT 1-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
13.02.2022 Mladost Lucani Mladost Lucani 2-0 HT 1-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
1-2
AWAY Mladost Lucani
2.59 xG 1.30
76% Ball Possession 24%
21 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
583 Passes 130
89% Pass Accuracy 62%
59 Box Touches 17
34 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mladost Lucani nicked a narrow win over Backa Topola 2-1 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Backa Topola at 61% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Backa Topola had 76% of the ball to Mladost Lucani's 24%, shots finished 21-8, expected goals 2.59 to 1.30 — the balance of chances actually favoured Backa Topola.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Backa Topola and 1.50 for Mladost Lucani.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani?

Backa Topola 1-2 Mladost Lucani in the Serbia - Super League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Mladost Lucani?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 61%, draw 22%, Mladost Lucani 17%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Backa Topola), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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