Erzurumspor FK 3-0 Yeni Malatyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 1 Sep 2024

Erzurumspor FK
3-0 HT 1-0
Yeni Malatyaspor
📅01/09/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.18
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
24%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.75
No
61%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.75
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 32% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.36
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
34.5
X/1
23%
3.08
X/2
10%
31.5
X/X
9%
8.06
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
6%
29.5
2/X
8%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
79%
-24.6pp
22%
Draw
15%
+6.2pp
24%
Away Win
5%
+18.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.0pp
39%
BTTS Yes
32%
+7.0pp
61%
BTTS No
68%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzurumspor FK v Yeni Malatyaspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Yeni Malatyaspor EU Bookmakers 8%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
2.07/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.76
-6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +71% / -1%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
455 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 77%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
25.1 Crosses 11.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.2

Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Yeni Malatyaspor
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.45 xG 1.18
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 Passes 307
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.10.2022 Yeni Malatyaspor Yeni Malatyaspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
21.04.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Yeni Malatyaspor Yeni Malatyaspor TSL
27.12.2020 Yeni Malatyaspor Yeni Malatyaspor 1-3 HT 0-1 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
12.05.2019 Yeni Malatyaspor Yeni Malatyaspor 3-1 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
09.12.2018 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-3 HT 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor Yeni Malatyaspor TSL

Erzurumspor FK 3-0 Yeni Malatyaspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
3-0
AWAY Yeni Malatyaspor
4.69 xG 0.08
60% Ball Possession 40%
31 Total Shots 3
16 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 1
412 Passes 250
83% Pass Accuracy 73%
44 Box Touches 1
30 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK swept aside Yeni Malatyaspor 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Erzurumspor FK as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 60% of the ball to Yeni Malatyaspor's 40%, shots finished 31-3, expected goals 4.69 to 0.08.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Erzurumspor FK had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.40 for Yeni Malatyaspor.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor?

Erzurumspor FK 3-0 Yeni Malatyaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 55%, draw 22%, Yeni Malatyaspor 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzurumspor FK), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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