Hatayspor 0-3 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 1 Sep 2024

📅01/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.69
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
10%
14.2
X/1
11%
7.24
X/2
14%
4.38
X/X
10%
4.19
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.8
2/X
6%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
27%
+6.1pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.2pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hatayspor EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 49%
+16% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -39% / -39%
1.41/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/0.96
+52% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -79% / -31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
298 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 79%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
17.4 Crosses 26.4
3.1 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hatayspor
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Samsunspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 1.24
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 10
206 Passes 283
66% Pass Accuracy 72%
12 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Hatayspor Hatayspor 3-0 HT 1-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
04.11.2023 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-1 HT 0-1 Hatayspor Hatayspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hatayspor
0-3
AWAY Samsunspor
0.25 xG 2.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
5 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
409 Passes 327
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Box Touches 30
14 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hatayspor vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor cruised past Hatayspor 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Samsunspor as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Hatayspor had 54% of the ball to Samsunspor's 46%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 0.25 to 2.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hatayspor and 1.00 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?

Hatayspor 0-3 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 01/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hatayspor vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Samsunspor win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hatayspor 33%, draw 25%, Samsunspor 42%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samsunspor), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Samsunspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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